Lesson Eighteen: Ocean Level Rise
How we’re “Atlantis-ing” some of our biggest cities
Photo Credit: Surging Seas
I first saw this rendering 2 years ago and it stuck with me. It’s a model of what NYC could look like in ~100 years based on current trends. The above reflects a projected 6-8 ft rise in global sea level - which would cause this cultural and urban staple, to simply cease functioning as a city.
NOT JUST NYC
These estimates don’t only apply to NYC. Some of our biggest cities will be hit just as bad, in some cases worse, in the coming century:
From the data we have, it is estimated that by 2050, over 570 low-lying coastal cities will face projected sea level rise by at least 1.5-2 feet. This puts over 800 million people at risk from the impacts of rising seas and storm surges. The global economic costs to cities, from rising seas and flooding, could amount to $1 trillion by mid-century - that’s 1/80th of current global GDP.
WHAT WE’VE COVERED SO FAR
Over the last two weeks we’ve learned that the ocean absorbs:
Carbon (which leads to things like acidification and coral bleaching)
A significant amount of the atmospheric heat (as much as 90%)
WHY DOES THE OCEAN LEVEL RISE?
Building off of what we know, ocean level rise is cause by two main factors:
Thermal expansion of water caused by the warming of the ocean
Increased melting of land-based ice, such as glaciers and ice sheets
LET’S TALK ABOUT THOSE ICE SHEETS
Presently, 10% of land area on Earth is covered with glacial ice, including glaciers, ice caps, and the ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica.
Glacierized areas cover over 15 million km2 world wide.
SEE IF YOU CAN GUESS…
Today’s topic isn’t an easy one to digest - the scale is immense and the timelines are confusing. If you’ve got any thoughts/concerns/questions let me know!
